In this section we present the scientific publications and the technical reports resulting from our research.

“Adaptive learning with term structure information” European Economic Review, vol. 134, May 2021, 103689

This paper builds on the Euler-equation approach to adaptive learning (AL) by considering term structure information in addition to macroeconomic data. We consider a medium-scale DSGE model where the term structure expectations hypothesis is imposed. The model estimated under AL using term structure information has a better fit. Estimation results show that term structure provides useful real-time information in forecasting macroeconomic variables above and beyond that provided by revised macroeconomic data. In particular, term structure information greatly improves the matching of AL expectations to the corresponding forecasts reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which further contributes to the empirical validity of AL.

Authors: Jesús Vázquez, Pablo Aguilar

The extensive margin and US aggregate fluctuations: A quantitative assessment” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 120, November 2020, 103997

We report empirical evidence indicating that US net business formation has recently turned more volatile, procyclical and persistent. The introduction of the extensive margin amplifies the effects of technology and risk-premium shocks, and reduces the procyclicality of firm-level production. The main sources of variability of the US aggregate fluctuations during the Great Recession are countercyclical technology shocks, persistent adverse risk-premium shocks, and expansionary monetary policy shocks.

Authors: Miguel Casares, Hashmat Khan, Jean Christophe Poutineau

“Labor Share Decline and Intellectual Property Products Capital” Econometrica, vol. 88(6), November 2020, pages 2609-2628

We study the behavior of the U.S. labor share over the past 90 years. We find that the observed decline of the labor share is entirely explained by the capitalization of intellectual property products in the national income and product accounts.

Authors: Dongya Koh, Raúl Santaeulalia, Yu Zheng

“Leisure time and the sectoral composition of employment” Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, October 2020, pages 198-219

We observe the following patterns in the US economy during the period 1965-2015: (i) the rise of the service sector, (ii) the increase in leisure time, and (iii) the increase in recreational services. We explain these three patterns of structural change in a multisector growth model in which leisure time and recreational services increase with income. We show that the introduction of recreational services contributes to explain the rise of the service sector, inequality in leisure, and employment differences across countries caused by differences in income taxes.

Authors: Edgar Cruz, Xavier Raurich

“Capital accumulation when consumers are tempted by others’ consumption experience”, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 72(3), July 2020, pages 804-828

The paper analyzes how the influence of peer effects on self-control affects capital accumulation. Individuals are tempted to take the economy-wide average consumption as an aspiration. They face a self-control problem, and observing each other’s consumption determines the individual’s capacity to deal with this problem. The crucial point would be whether or not consumers take the consumption of the individuals belonging to the other living generations as a reference in forming their aspirations.

Authors: Jaime Alonso-Carrera, Stéphane Bouché

“Wealth inequality, intergenerational transfers and socioeconomic background” INET Oxford Working, Oxford Economic Papers, June 2020, Paper No. 2020-15

This paper estimates the contribution of intergenerational transfers (inheritances and gifts) and socioeconomic background to wealth inequality in France, Spain, Great Britain and the United States. When interactions between the two factors are accounted for, the net contribution of inheritances and gifts is between 23% and 30%, while the net contribution of family background lies between 4% and 11%. These values are substantial and reveal that the importance of intergenerational transfers in wealth inequality.

Authors: Juan C. Palomino, Gustavo A. Marrero, Brian Nolan, Juan G. Rodríguez

«Economic Growth, Energy Intensity and the Energy Mix,» Energy Economics, vol. 81(C), June 2019, pages 1056-1077

This paper explores how changes in energy intensity and the switch to renewables can boost economic growth. In doing so, we implement a dynamic panel data approach on a sample of 134 countries over the period 1960 to 2010. We find evidence that improving energy intensity can contribute to reconcile growth and the environment at the worldwide level. Moving towards frontier renewables (wind, solar, wave or geothermic) on top of that, enhances economic growth while reducing CO2 emissions.

Authors: Antonia Díaz, Gustavo A. Marrero, Luis A. Puch, Jesús Rodríguez

“The Public and Private Marginal Product of Capital” Economica, vol. 86, April 2019, pages 336-361

Why doesn’t capital flow to developing countries as predicted by the neoclassical model? What are the direction and degree of capital misallocation across nations? We revisit these questions by removing public capital from total capital to achieve a more accurate estimate of the marginal productivity of private capital.

Authors: Matt Lowe, Chris Papageorgiou, Fidel Perez-Sebastian

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates” International Journal of Central Banking, vol 14(2), March 2018, pages 301-339

In this article, we design estimate a novel yield curve model for a panel of international countries and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premiums in advanced economies. Global factors have a key role in shaping risk-neutral rates and term premium dynamics, especially in the post 2008 financial crisis period.

Authors: Mirko Abbritti, Salvatore Dell’Erba, Antonio Moreno, Sergio Sola

“Education outcomes and the labor market” Labour Economics, vol. 54(C), October 2018, pages 14-28

The quality of education appears to be negatively correlated with the mismatch rate (or over-education of workers at the tasks they perform) and the unemployment rate across the EU-15 countries. We use a model of the labor market with frictions including heterogeneous workers and firms to investigate the impact of education outcomes on the labor market.

Authors: Francesc Obiols, Virginia Sánchez Marcos

«Capital goods, measured TFP and growth: The case of Spain» European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), April 2016, pages 19-39

The effect of investing in equipment and/or structures on TFP and long run growth is investigated here. We argue that economies can grow in spite of stagnant TFP if the investment rate is inefficiently high. We study the case of Spain where real GDP per worker grew at 2.74 percent annually and TFP was stagnant during 1996–2007. We show that low Spanish TFP is due to low ISTC and an inefficiently high investment in residential structures. We quantify the effect of the housing boom of the 2000s, the total cost of subsidies to residential structures in terms of TFP and income growth.

Authors: Antonia Díaz, Luis Franjo.